Chapter 517: Chapter 90: Taking Advantage of the Crisis
 

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The agricultural crisis was, in fact, brewing for some time, and Russia’s great land reclamation movement was simply a catalyst for the outbreak of the crisis.

After entering the 19th century, agricultural production technology developed very quickly, with crop rotation techniques being promoted across Europe, significantly improving land utilization rates.

New production tools were continuously being developed, heralding the era of mechanized agriculture and allowing a single farmer to cultivate more land.

During this period, agricultural output also began to grow substantially. The grain output of various countries was constantly breaking records, with Austria, for instance, maintaining annual grain production growth rates exceeding 3%.

At the same time, the rate of population growth was far behind the increase in grain production. The greatest benefit of the surplus was that most people could fill their stomachs. The increase in related agricultural by-products also enriched the populace’s diet.

In the process of population growth, the agricultural population also increased. Although a large number of rural laborers became industrial workers in the process of urbanization, reducing the proportion of the agricultural population, the number itself continued to increase.

Against this backdrop, to obtain more income, civilians spontaneously started land reclamation movements. Russia’s extensive land reclamation was not the first of its kind; Austria had set a bad precedent.

The land revolution within Austria was not complete, and the nobility still held vast tracts of land. To meet the peasants’ demand for land, the Austro-Balkans was thus developed.

Compared to 1850, the area of cultivated land in Austria had doubled. As the cake grew larger, domestic land issues were naturally solved.

Tsar Alexander II’s grand reclamation movement was essentially learning from Austria’s success—if peasants needed land, then the supply of domestic land would be increased. With more land available, conflicts were naturally resolved.

As a result, grain production overcapacity became unstoppable. During Austria’s agricultural development, the Vienna Government even intentionally guided the public to plant cash crops.

For example: the plan to replace rice cultivation with mulberry in the Lombardy and Venice regions also developed a corresponding sericulture industry; the vineyard project in the Bosnia and Herzegovina region gave rise to the development of the raisin and wine industries.

These planned developments aimed to avoid an oversupply of grain as much as possible. However, this was merely a drop in the bucket; total grain production continued to climb.

If the Prusso-Russian war had not broken out, and had the Russian Empire not been struck by civil war, severely damaging Russia’s agricultural production, this crisis would have erupted years earlier.

With a major grain exporter absent, Europe had not experienced a famine, but now with Russia re-entering the grain export market, and with even greater production capacity than before, the market could no longer cope.

There are only three countries in Europe not worried about the impact of grain prices: the British are certainly one of them, otherwise they wouldn’t dare to ignite this fire.

Britain’s industrialization began early, and its industrial population has long exceeded the agricultural populace, making agriculture’s share of the domestic gross production extremely low.

The small farm economy collapsed early during the Enclosure Movement; land became relatively centralized, bolstering its ability to withstand risk. Being the world’s largest agricultural product importer, Britain naturally does not fear a grain price collapse.

The other two countries are Belgium and Monaco—the latter need not even be discussed; one glance at the size of its territory reveals it’s a coastal village with hardly any agriculture to speak of.

Belgium is also a grain-importing country, the earliest industrial country on the European Continent, with advanced industry and low agricultural output, so it need not fear the impact.

Looking purely from an economic perspective, the fallout from an agricultural crisis would undoubtedly hit Austria the hardest. Being the largest exporter of agricultural products, it would suffer the greatest impact.

Considering strictly the agricultural population, Austria’s agricultural populace still represents more than half of the total population—it wouldn’t be wrong to say Austria is an agricultural country.

However, as the economy developed, many farmers with relatively little land actually had robust family members working in the cities.

They both farmed and worked—so they couldn’t be categorized simply as farmers or as workers. In statistical data, they often got counted on both sides.

In different provinces, the proportion of agricultural population varied. In the economically more advanced Bohemian region, the proportion of the agricultural population was already below 40%; whereas in the agriculturally thriving Hungarian region, it was as high as 70 to 80 percent.

Within this, the proportion of migrant farmworkers took up a considerable part. In certain densely populated villages, the young and strong labor force that went to work in cities reached up to 90%.

France’s situation was even more severe, with the Italian Area dragging it down, especially the Southern Italy region. If one analyzed urban-rural income, they would find hardly any difference, or might even discover situations where the income of city workers was below that of farmers.

This does not indicate that agriculture in the Italian Area was advanced, but rather that Italy’s urban economy was depressed. Although these cities developed early, constrained by resources, Italy’s industrial development was very difficult.

This was the main reason the Russians aligned with the British rather than the French. The British could endure the shock to agriculture, daring to allow Russian agricultural products in, while the French could not.

With France’s substantial rural population and the economically fragile Italian Area, a grain price plummet and market shock could well lead to widespread strife.

“Grain prices are of major importance, and rashly disrupting national markets would inevitably lead to a severe backlash.

Moreover, agriculture is different from industry; even if there is an oversupply on the market, producers will not adjust in the short term—in fact, production may even continue to rise.

We can regulate our domestic market, guiding our people to reduce the area planted with grain, but we cannot influence other countries. At most, we can only cause Russian farmers to go bankrupt, not reduce production.

Breaking down the agricultural production markets of each country and establishing a monopolistic position in the field of agricultural exports is, frankly, not something I see being successful.

This world has too much land suitable for cultivation, and the market for agricultural products is too small.

Not to mention anything else, just by understanding the situation of Austro-Africa, everyone should know that if needed, Austria’s grain production capacity can increase manifold at any time.

The British, Portuguese, Dutch, and French also lack no shortage of colonies to produce grain. Once they sense any sign of us monopolizing the international grain export market, intervention will inevitably occur.”

Clearly, Prime Minister Felix was a rationalist. He did not support the grand plan proposed by the Agricultural Department, instead favoring the Finance Minister’s suggestion of a war of attrition.

By leveraging the advantage in production costs, Austria was destined to occupy an important position in the agricultural product export market by simply enduring.

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As for the potential greatest competitor, the United States of America, it was far from a threat. In the face of interests, plantation owners would naturally make the right choice.

In the original timeline, the United States did not divide; after the Civil War, it lost its dominant position in the international cotton market, and it was then that the grain planting industry began to develop.

Now, the US federal countries are rich agricultural nations, continuing to dominate the market as the cotton production leader. Having not experienced defeat or suppression, other cotton-producing regions simply could not compete with them.

Who would be so full they’d shun substantial profits and instead dive into the treacherous export market for grain?

Indeed, the international grain export market had become a trap. Before the winners and losers were discerned, food producers in various countries would have a hard time for a long while.

If Austria had the same natural advantages as the Americans, it too would not stubbornly cling to the grain market. In fact, the Department of Agriculture’s proposal to overthrow the agricultural production systems of European countries was also being pushed by the nobility.

On the surface, profits from agriculture could no longer satisfy their appetite; they wanted to monopolize the European food supply to obtain greater benefits.

In reality, what they wanted more was to abolish a series of taxes to increase their income. Everyone knows the chances of monopolizing the European food supply are slim, but everyone loves tax cuts!

Franz had already met with many lobbyists beforehand, who argued that the country was already wealthy and could do without the minor revenue from agriculture; whether or not…

As the spokesperson for the interests of the nobility class, Franz naturally could not refuse, but as the Emperor, he had to consider the national interest, hence this agricultural economic conference came to be.

The final result was the government reducing some of the tax, making up for their losses in this turbulence, soothing the nobility class. Considering their wallets, not all taxes were completely exempted.

As for the peasant class, they merely caught a ride on a tailwind. Otherwise, how could policies that looked after their interests, such as tax cuts and protected grain prices, possibly be proposed by bureaucrats?

The reasons are not important; what matters is that tangible benefits are secured. To this day, compared to the nobility, Austrian farmers actually own more land—roughly 3/4 of the homeland’s surface area.

Unbeknownst to them, the nobility had become political spokespeople for the interests of the peasant class. This result was completely unexpected for Franz.

Seeing that the conference was nearly over, and the radical plan from the Department of Agriculture had been vetoed by the Cabinet, Franz knew it was time for his own performance.

“The success rate of monopolizing the European food supply is too low; we must act on disrupting the agricultural production systems of various nations, but we should not be too extreme.

The suggestion from the Finance Minister is good; we could start with undermining the Anglo-Russian agreement and see just how firm the Anglo-Russian friendship is, while at the same time clearing out our old stocks of grain.

The plan from the Department of Agriculture should be taken back and reworked to minimize our presence in this storm. The reason for the plummet in grain prices must be attributed to the Russians.

Once the agricultural crisis fully erupts, Europe will certainly experience a wave of farmer bankruptcies, which may last for quite a time.

The Colonial Department must also act immediately, recruiting people from all over Europe. Especially the Russian Empire, which will be the hardest hit by the crisis; as allies, we have a duty to help them remove hazards.”

In the original timeline during this agricultural crisis, the Germany Region was hit hard; during this period, millions of Germans emigrated to America.

Now the situation has changed; Austria has already recruited immigrants multiple times in the Germany Region, and the problem of population surplus has been resolved.

The best proof of this is the German Federation Empire; despite being established for so many years, the total population has not exceeded ten million and is merely treading water.

If you saw their immigration data, no one would be surprised. From 1854 to the present, the population outflow from the German Federation Empire has reached 3.5 million.

With so many leaving, the local population naturally couldn’t grow. If all these people had remained in place and reproduced, based on the local birth and death rates, the population of the German Federation Empire would have surpassed 16 million by now.

Having sheared enough wool from this side, Franz then reached out to the Russian Empire. Even after losing in the Prusso-Russian War, yielding millions of square kilometers of territory, the Russian Empire still had a population of over 74 million people.

Franz had already played the card of stimulating birth rates, and the birth rates in many parts of Austria still fell behind the Russians. If not for Austria’s lower mortality rate, its population growth rate would absolutely not keep up with that of the Russians.

According to sociologists’ analysis, in the coming years, the Russian Empire would continue to experience a baby boom; farmers who had received land would be keen to produce more children, with the birth rate expected to surge past 6%.

This data was not surprising; the average lifespan in the Russian Empire was short, the population structure comprised mainly minors, adolescents, and middle-aged people, with very few over the age of forty-five.

Analyzed from the data, it meant that over half of the Russian Empire’s population comprised people of reproductive age; such a high proportion of young adults, coupled with a lack of entertainment activities and the habit of going home to procreate, naturally resulted in high birth rates.

Not only the Russian Empire had a high proportion of people of reproductive age, but nearly every country had a high proportion, with most countries being over 40%.

Entering the 19th century, the European population entered a period of explosive growth, with the population growth rate of each country being rapid; the slowest being the French, followed by the Spanish and Italians.

The main reasons still lay in the economy; farmers without enough land were already unable to support more children. Not to mention workers, the consistently high numbers of abandoned babies spoke volumes.

Of course, government policies were also a major factor in the low population growth rates of these three countries. Looking at this era, it cannot be said that these policies were completely wrong.

If the economies did not show signs of improvement and population growth was not curbed, how could the additional population be sustained?

The French are an exception; their issues did not stem from an inability to sustain, but from their own misguided actions.

With grain prices collapsing and the high birth rates in the Russian Empire, it definitely would become a disaster area; families with many children would certainly be unable to support themselves.

At this time, emigration was exactly what Alexander II needed to relieve pressure. No matter how reluctant the Tsarist Government was, during this period, they would not be able to prevent the people from leaving.

From this perspective, both sides had their needs met. For the Tsarist Government, which prioritized stability first, eliminating internal hazards was worth more than subsequent issues.