Chapter 422: Chapter 109: Fortune and Misfortune Go Hand in Hand
 

You pit me, and I pit you, struggle is the theme of the era of the great powers.

One can hardly control one’s fate in this tumultuous world. In international politics, there are only interests; allies when interests align, enemies when conflicts arise. Role reversal is a basic maneuver.

In this regard, the British are the best, one moment allies and the next enemies, only to become friends again after a while.

To some extent, the diplomacy of European countries in this era was all about learning from the British. Everyone’s bottom lines and principles kept dropping lower and lower; close and cooperative alliances only existed before the Middle Ages.

Against this backdrop, the relationships between European countries are a tangled mess, and cannot be narrowly defined as friends or enemies.

In order to gain more support in negotiations, both Prussia and Russia launched diplomatic offensives; the slow-reacting Ottoman Empire also initiated diplomatic activities, leaving only a few Khanates in Central Asia and the Eastern Empire in a state of stagnation.

Being stagnant is tragic; international support still plays a significant role under the European system of rules and even the diplomatic support of small countries has its value.

With no diplomatic capabilities, the small fry can only rely on John Bull himself. Perhaps this is also what the London Government would like to see the most, as it would increase their influence in these countries and gain greater benefits.

Franz initially wanted to be just another onlooker, but the tree wants to stay still while the wind keeps blowing. Because of the Russian-Austrian Alliance, Austria was dragged into the fray.

“Russia wants to return to the pre-war status and gain our support?”

Franz could not help but be surprised; it sounded utterly fanciful. Whether acknowledged or not, the Russians were the losers this time, and how could the losers expect not to pay a price?

Not a single inch of territory ceded, not a ruble in compensation.

Such a ceasefire condition was unlikely to gain everyone’s agreement. Unless they could persuade all European nations to back them, paying a price was inevitable.

Foreign Minister Weisenberg replied, “Yes, Your Majesty. This is what the Russian Envoy has said; they are unwilling to take responsibility for this war.”

Without a doubt, this involved political games within the Tsarist Government. No one at the top of the government wanted to be held accountable, so they resorted to shameless denials.

Franz was amused by the audacity; he couldn’t care less about Russia’s mess and decisively said, “Reply to the Tsarist Government, if they believe they have the ability to persuade everyone to agree, then we have no objections.

If they cannot achieve this, then they should not engage in such wild fantasies lest they become an international laughingstock.”

“International laughingstock,” this was a sore point for the Russians, whose diplomatic blunders were nearly endless. Every few years there would be a new mishap, as if without making a joke of themselves, they could not grow.

Naturally, Franz did not wish to indulge the Tsarist Government’s folly; taking everyone for fools, one might eventually realize the fool is oneself.

Diplomacy is founded on power, and the Russian Empire at its zenith certainly had the confidence for such an approach. Had they come to a ceasefire a year earlier, they would have had the power to not surrender any land or compensation.

But alas, the gunfire in Moscow ended it all, the internal threat remained the Tsarist Government’s primary issue, and foreign enemies were only a secondary contradiction.

Even the most radical Polish nationalists would not dare to dream of swallowing the Russian Empire in one gulp. In terms of power, apart from the fact that the Kingdom of Prussia could still fight, the rest were only winning because they had the upper hand.

The main forces of the Tsarist army were tied down by the Prussians, and the enemies everyone else faced were Russia’s second-tier troops, who were on a completely different level in combat effectiveness.

Now, the tragedy lay in the fact that the Tsarist Government’s main forces had been exhausted, and the combat ability of the new troops was at best second-tier. The fact that they were at a disadvantage on all major fronts also proved this point.

Prime Minister Felix analyzed, “Your Majesty, I believe that the Russians are testing our position.

The war has been going on for so long, the Tsarist Government cannot possibly be unaware that they can no longer continue to fight.

The economy of the Russian Empire is on the verge of collapse, and social conflicts have already reached a critical point. If they do not end the war soon, the Tsarist Government will be finished.”

“Economic collapse, internal and external troubles,” Franz thought from a different perspective – what would he do if he were in Alexander II’s shoes?

Quickly, Franz came to a conclusion—stabilize first, then reform. Never mind the details, the first priority is to secure the regime, then utilize external pressure to push for social reforms.

Nicholas I had won the Near East War, not only covering up the social crisis but also increasing the difficulties of reforms, as the ruling group did not feel the pressure of life and death.

Now that the situation had worsened, it might not be a bad opportunity. After this failure, the strength of the Reformists would inevitably surge post-war. Alexander II could also hold accountable those responsible for the defeat, seizing the chance to rid some of the rotten elements.

If ruthless enough, the Tsarist Government could also take the opportunity to suppress the rebellion and deal a heavy blow to the domestic Conservatives.

This was a proven example; Austria had undergone a radical reshuffle and completed social reforms due to the Great Revolution a decade earlier.

Franz had no doubts about Alexander II’s abilities; in the original timeline, this same person had accomplished a social reform. This period was naturally accompanied by blood and violence, otherwise, he would not have been assassinated by the Revolutionary Party.

As an Emperor, Franz was acutely aware of how difficult it was to assassinate an emperor. Without the cooperation of internal traitors, the Revolutionaries could not get close.

And how else could one throw bombs? Especially after one bomb was thrown, and while Alexander II was checking on the injured coachman, another bomb was thrown that finally killed him.

Were the guards made of wood? If someone launched an attack at close range, they would be given a second chance?

There was a time gap between these events; a person throwing a bomb by hand implies only a few dozen meters of distance, under normal circumstances, the assassin would either be shot to pieces or captured alive, with no chance for a second attempt.

Including the surrounding crowd, they would be cleared and controlled immediately. The assassination obviously concealed something; analyzing merely from the surface is highly unreasonable.

Franz, assessing his own security capabilities, was certain there were no traitors among them; assassins could not possibly get close to him with guns or bombs.

The security personnel around him would prevent strangers from approaching. Even for political show, those who could contact the Emperor were thoroughly vetted for several generations back to ensure they posed no threat.

In Russia, a country strict with social hierarchy, it was difficult for commoners to get close to the nobility, let alone have close contact with the Emperor.

Not to mention a single assassin, even a group of them wouldn’t likely make it within dozens of meters.

Franz didn’t bother himself with these issues anymore; as long as he was careful himself, that was enough. Even when active in Vienna, he was accompanied by hundreds of guards and thousands of policemen on the periphery.

The safety factor was absolutely the highest; if assassins saw this setup, they could only retreat obediently.

Disguising oneself for secret visits was out of the question. Monarchs who only traveled in a carriage with a few guards existed only in tiny countries. They couldn’t afford grandeur and had to make do.

Franz said with a chuckle, “It seems that Alexander II will soon make a big move. Right now, he is probably deliberately indulging the bureaucratic group to lull them into complacency.

The Tsarist Government’s great purge is coming. I guess Alexander II will launch a coup, clean up the rot within the government, and then throw the blame for the war’s failure onto them.

It’s killing several birds with one stone, not only clearing the rot from the government but also an opportunity to suppress the Conservatives and simultaneously give the public an explanation.

Once the corrupt officials are purged, the rebels lose their excuse for rebellion. Before long, the rebels will fall into internal strife. If the Revolutionaries don’t run fast, they might even be caught and presented as a token of achievement.”

The roots of the Revolutionary Party were too shallow. Despite their stirring up considerable noise, at this time any revolutionary party in Russia would barely number in the hundreds.

They had united temporarily solely to seize power. If they hadn’t been so weak, they wouldn’t have adopted the banner “Clearing the Emperor’s Side, Punishing the Corrupt Officials.”

While that slogan had united many, it also brought a problem. As the rebel army grew, the Revolutionaries lost control over them.

“Corrupt Officials” once punished, the people’s goal for rebellion was achieved, and many would withdraw. To put it bluntly, many joined the uprising simply because of excessive taxation.

With just a few decrees from Alexander II, the problem could be solved, the blame could be pushed onto the bureaucracy, the people’s grievances would be vented, and the Tsar would still be the good Tsar.

At present, the public still supported the Tsarist, and the army also backed the Tsar. Whether reformist or conservative, the aristocratic group had no intention of overthrowing the Tsarist.

Including the recently risen capitalists, these people believed it was better to keep the Tsar than not. They supported the revolution only for seizing power, not for a real social revolution.

In a country where over ninety-nine percent of people support the Tsar, attempting to overthrow the Tsarist Government is nonsense, isn’t it?

In this respect, Alexander II was born at a good time and in a good place. The Russian revolutionary mentors had not yet been born, and there was no sign of the proletarian revolutionary party. The current bourgeois revolutionary groups weren’t anti-imperial.

If the time were moved forward by fifty years, or if the setting shifted to France, the Republic would have been established by now.

Prime Minister Felix objected, “Reform is not so easy. The power of the conservatives in the Russian Empire is very strong. Nicholas I couldn’t complete social reform, and it’s even more difficult for Alexander II.

All he can do now is probably to carry out limited reform, transforming the feudal system of the Russian Empire to strengthen it in the short term.”

He had the authority to speak, as during Austria’s reform, the Hungarian nobility lost all their say, the conservatives in Vienna were swept into the trash by the rebel army, and the Bohemian conservatives were left scattered by the rebel assault.

By the time the Vienna Government announced reform, conservative strength had reduced to a fraction of its former self, and most had lost their foundations.

Even so, there has been no shortage of struggle between the two sides over the past decade.

Now, the Tsarist Government doesn’t have the means to use the rebels to clean up the Conservatives; the Tsar must enter the fray himself, and just that wave of hatred is enough to give Alexander II a headache.

This destines that reformists and conservatives will continue to oppose each other for a long time. Even with Tsarist support, it will be difficult for the reformists’ power to exceed that of the conservatives in the short term.

There’s no way around it—following European tradition, even if cleansing the nobility, Alexander II can’t possibly kill them all.

Charges of corruption and bribery are too trivial for the nobility, amounting only to minor misconduct. When it comes to military supplies, at most only a few responsible individuals can be executed.

Most will either be sent home or exiled to Siberia. These people, stripped of power but still alive, remain a latent threat.

The rebels in Moscow were highly ineffective, failing to stir any significant news. Without big nobles or capitalists falling, it was impossible to implicate anyone.

“Clearing The Emperor’s Side, Punishing the Corrupt Officials,” inherently ranks lower than rebellion, and for the sake of proving the Emperor’s mercy, Alexander II would also have to issue a proclamation of clemency.

The scapegoats are all Revolutionaries. The rest, if they’re wise, will decisively switch sides once Alexander II issues the amnesty. After the war, at most they’ll be marginalized—purges are out of the question.

This means the Conservatives only suffered a political defeat, with not much loss to their actual strength.

After all, like Austria, the Russian Empire’s army is dominated by the nobility; the Tsar also can’t violate the rules of the game.

Franz nodded and said, “For the Russian Empire, limited social reform is enough to create a world power.

With vast territory, abundant resources, and a large population, simply completing industrialization would make them a great European power.

If they were to undergo thorough social reform, it would not be a good thing for us. Keep in mind that among the Great European Nations, only the Russian Empire has development potential surpassing ours.”